Shockwaves of a Failed Brazilian Coup: President Trump's Leveraging of Power to Fulfill his Political Agenda

How the effort to prosecute Jair Bolsonaro has led to global economic developments.

^[1]

In 2023, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro engaged in an attack on Brazilian democracy by breaching the Supreme Court, presidential palace, and reaching the congressional building.^[2] While the effort failed and President-elect Lula da Silva was sworn in the week prior,^[3] many, including European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, condemned the attack for representing a clear affront to the peaceful transition of power.^[4] Now, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has imposed significant tariffs on Brazilian imports in response to the prosecution of Bolsonaro.^[5]

January 8^th, 2023, and the Ensuing Prosecution

As a theme of his campaign, Mr. Bolsonaro railed against unsubstantiated claims of election interference designed to install Mr. da Silva as president.^[6] Following the election of Mr. da Silva in a run-off election held on October 30, 2022, Bolsonaro’s rhetoric grew even more inflammatory.^[7]

In connection with his activities related to the attack, Brazilian Attorney General Paulo Gonet Branco brought charges against the former president in February 2025.^[8] On September 11, the Brazilian Supreme Court, in a four-to-one ruling, convicted Mr. Bolsonaro of taking part in an armed criminal organization, attempting to violently abolish democracy, organizing a coup, and damaging government property and protected cultural assets.^[9]

In isolation, the criminal conviction of a recent BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) leader would be a substantial development. Most nations have remained silent regarding the legal developments; however, with Donald Trump’s recent reelection, this prosecution has garnered greater international relevance.^[10] President Trump, whose own supporters engaged in similar activity following his defeat in the 2020 election to now-former-President Joe Biden, has also made election integrity a central issue of his agenda.^[11] President Trump has referred to the prosecution of Bolsonaro as a “witch hunt” and has acted against Brazil in response.^[12] He has sanctioned the presiding judge and revoked visas for most of the fellow justices on the Brazilian Supreme Court.^[13]

The Trump Administration’s Imposition of Tariffs

Using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), the Trump Administration imposed an additional 40% tariff on Brazil in July 2025.^[14] The administration claimed that the prosecution of Bolsonaro represented a human rights abuse.^[15] Several lawmakers argue that this usage of IEEPA stretches beyond its legislative purpose and have moved to vote on the tariffs.^[16] Despite this, it has been observed that the usage of the statute has gradually expanded.^[17] The length and frequency of the national emergencies used to invoke IEEPA have likewise increased.^[18]

IEEPA is currently being used to back over 30 sanctions programs including former President Joe Biden’s application of sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.^[19] However, despite these previous uses of IEEPA, President Trump is the lone president to invoke the statute to implement a tariff regime.^[20]

By setting these tariffs, the Trump Administration is gambling that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of its usage of IEEPA. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments challenging the legality of President Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on November 5, 2025.^[21] During oral arguments, several of the conservative justices questioned the legitimacy of IEEPA imposed tariffs.^[22] Justice Amy Coney Barrett took issue with the argument that tariffs are necessary to combat threats to national security from nations like Spain and France.^[23]

An attack on a free and fair Brazilian election is troubling on its own, but the election of Donald Trump has added a layer of transnational consequences. With the Supreme Court having heard arguments challenging the use of emergency powers to implement this agenda, the issue will continue to develop and have international aftershocks on the global economy. If the U.S. Supreme Court decides that Mr. Trump can stretch IEEPA, the implications could loom large over future administrations seeking to use IEEPA to execute their personal agenda.

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^[1] Samuel Costa Melo. (Sep. 8, 2022). Upslash.

^[2] See Rob Picheta, The Violent Attack on Brazil’s Government was Months in the Making. Here’s What You Need to Know, CNN (Jan. 9, 2023), https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/americas/brazil-congress-attack-explained-intl.

^[3] See id.

^[4] See Wilhelmine Preuseen, EU, UK leaders Condemn Bolsonaro-backers’ Assault on Brazil’s Capital, Politico (Jan. 9, 2023), https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-condemn-pro-jair-bolsonaro-storming-of-brazil-official-buildings/#:~:text=Politics,EU%2C%20UK%20leaders%20condemn%20Bolsonaro%2Dbackers'%20assault%20on%20Brazil's,the%20army%20in%20a%20coup.  

^[5] See Luciana Novaes Malalhaes & Lisandra Paraguasso, Trump Hits Brazil With Tariffs, Sanctions but Key Sectors Excluded, Reuters (Jul. 31, 2025, 3:05 AM), https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-hits-brazil-with-tariffs-sanctions-key-sectors-excluded-2025-07-30/.

^[6] See Picheta, supra note 2. 

^[7] See id.

^[8] See Jack Nicas, Brazil Charges Bolsonaro With Plotting a Coup After 2022 Election Loss, N.Y.Times (Feb. 18, 2025), https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coup-charges.html. 

^[9] See Ricardo Brito, Luciana Novaeas Magalhaes, & Manuela Andreoni, Brazil’s Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years After Landmark Coup Plot Conviction, Reuters, (Sep. 12, 2025), https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-sentenced-27-years-after-landmark-coup-plot-conviction-2025-09-12/. 

^[10] See id. 

^[11] See Picheta, supra note 2. 

^[12] See id.

^[13] See id.

^[14] See Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States from the Government of Brazil, The White House (July 30, 2025), https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-addresses-threats-to-the-united-states-from-the-government-of-brazil/. 

^[15] See id.

^[16] See Alexander Bolton, Senate Democrats to Force Votes on Trump Tariffs on Canada, Brazil, The Hill (Sep. 16, 2025), https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5505606-senate-democrats-trump-tariffs-canada-brazil/. 

^[17] See The International Emergency Economic Powers Act: Origins, Evolution, and Use, Congress.gov, https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618#_Toc157616026.  

^[18] See id.

^[19] See Harrell, The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs, Lawfare (Jan. 31. 2025 11:34AM) https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-case-against-ieepa-tariffs.

^[20] See id.

^[21] See Zurcher & Sherman, Conservative Justices Sharply Question Trump tariffs in High-Stakes Hearing, BBC (Nov. 5. 2025), https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gp3nj5nj3o.

^[22] See id.

^[23] See id.